In-hospital mortality risk stratification in children aged under 5 years with pneumonia with or without pulse oximetry: A secondary analysis of the Pneumonia REsearch Partnership to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) dataset.

OBJECTIVES: We determined the pulse oximetry benefit in pediatric pneumonia mortality risk stratification and chest-indrawing pneumonia in-hospital mortality risk factors. METHODS: We report the characteristics and in-hospital pneumonia-related mortality of children aged 2-59 months who were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations dataset. We developed multivariable logistic regression models of chest-indrawing pneumonia to identify mortality risk factors. RESULTS: Among 285,839 children, 164,244 (57.5%) from hospital-based studies were included. Pneumonia case fatality risk (CFR) without pulse oximetry measurement was higher than with measurement (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6-5.9% vs 2.1%, 95% CI 1.9-2.4%). One in five children with chest-indrawing pneumonia was hypoxemic (19.7%, 95% CI 19.0-20.4%), and the hypoxemic CFR was 10.3% (95% CI 9.1-11.5%). Other mortality risk factors were younger age (either 2-5 months [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.94, 95% CI 6.67-14.84] or 6-11 months [aOR 2.67, 95% CI 1.71-4.16]), moderate malnutrition (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.87-3.09), and female sex (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.43-2.32). CONCLUSION: Children with a pulse oximetry measurement had a lower CFR. Many children hospitalized with chest-indrawing pneumonia were hypoxemic and one in 10 died. Young age and moderate malnutrition were risk factors for in-hospital chest-indrawing pneumonia-related mortality. Pulse oximetry should be integrated in pneumonia hospital care for children under 5 years.

Assembling a global database of child pneumonia studies to inform WHO pneumonia management algorithm: Methodology and applications.

Background: The existing World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia case management guidelines rely on clinical symptoms and signs for identifying, classifying, and treating pneumonia in children up to 5 years old. We aimed to collate an individual patient-level data set from large, high-quality pre-existing studies on pneumonia in children to identify a set of signs and symptoms with greater validity in the diagnosis, prognosis, and possible treatment of childhood pneumonia for the improvement of current pneumonia case management guidelines. Methods: Using data from a published systematic review and expert knowledge, we identified studies meeting our eligibility criteria and invited investigators to share individual-level patient data. We collected data on demographic information, general medical history, and current illness episode, including history, clinical presentation, chest radiograph findings when available, treatment, and outcome. Data were gathered separately from hospital-based and community-based cases. We performed a narrative synthesis to describe the final data set. Results: Forty-one separate data sets were included in the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) database, 26 of which were hospital-based and 15 were community-based. The PREPARE database includes 285 839 children with pneumonia (244 323 in the hospital and 41 516 in the community), with detailed descriptions of clinical presentation, clinical progression, and outcome. Of 9185 pneumonia-related deaths, 6836 (74%) occurred in children <1 year of age and 1317 (14%) in children aged 1-2 years. Of the 285 839 episodes, 280 998 occurred in children 0-59 months old, of which 129 584 (46%) were 2-11 months of age and 152 730 (54%) were males. Conclusions: This data set could identify an improved specific, sensitive set of criteria for diagnosing clinical pneumonia and help identify sick children in need of referral to a higher level of care or a change of therapy. Field studies could be designed based on insights from PREPARE analyses to validate a potential revised pneumonia algorithm. The PREPARE methodology can also act as a model for disease database assembly.

Strengthening Health Systems Using Innovative Digital Health Technologies in Africa.

While effective health systems are needed to advance Universal Health Coverage and actualize the health Sustainable Development Goals, information system verticalization remains a challenge among African health systems. Most investments are vertical, partner-driven and program-specific with limited system-wide impacts. Poor linkages exist amongst different solutions as they are not designed to capture robust data across multiple programmatic areas. To address these challenges, the World Health Organization Africa Regional Office has proposed the adoption of a Digital Health Platform (DHP) to streamline different solutions to a cohesive whole. The DHP presents a pragmatic approach of bringing multiple platforms together using recognized standards to create a national infostructure, which bridges information solutions toward healthy and sustainable outcomes. It has capacities to curate accurate, high fidelity and timely data feedback loops needed to strengthen and continuously improve program delivery, monitoring, management, and informed decision-making at every level of the health system regardless of location. This paper contributes to the ongoing regional conversations on the need to harness innovative digital solutions to improve healthcare delivery in Africa.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries.

INTRODUCTION: Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings. METHODS: We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool. RESULTS: A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Stunting is associated with poor outcomes in childhood pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: Stunting affects 26.7% of children worldwide, and little is known about its effects on the outcomes of childhood pneumonia. We evaluated the effect of stunting on the outcomes of pneumonia among children enrolled in two large clinical trials. METHODS: We analysed data from two WHO and USAID-sponsored inpatient treatment trials, the Severe Pneumonia Evaluation Antimicrobial Research study (n = 958) and the Amoxicillin Penicillin Pneumonia International Study (n = 1702), which enrolled children aged 2-59 months across 16 sites in LMICs. We assessed the effect of stunting (height-for-age Z score < -2) on treatment outcome and time to resolution of hypoxaemic pneumonia. RESULTS: Among 2542 (96%) children with valid data for height, 28% were stunted and 12.8% failed treatment by 5 days. The failure rate among stunted patients was 16.0% vs. 11.5% among non-stunted patients [unadjusted RR = 1.24 (95% CI 1.08, 1.41); adjusted RR = 1.28 (95% CI 1.10, 1.48)]. An inverse relationship was observed between height and failure rates, even among non-stunted children. Among 845 patients with hypoxaemic pneumonia, stunting was associated with a lower probability of normalisation of respiratory rate [HR = 0.63 (95% CI 0.52, 0.75)] and oxygen saturation [HR = 0.74 (95% CI 0.61, 0.89)]. CONCLUSIONS: Stunting increases the risk of treatment failure and is associated with a longer course of recovery in children with pneumonia. Strategies to decrease stunting may decrease the burden of adverse outcomes in childhood pneumonia in low-resource settings.

A clinical tool to predict failed response to therapy in children with severe pneumonia.

Severe pneumonia in children under 5 years of age continues to be an important clinical entity with treatment failure rates as high as 20%. Where severe pneumonias are common, predictive tools for treatment failure like chest radiography and pulse oximetry are not available or affordable. Thus, there is a need for development of simple, accurate and inexpensive clinical tools for prediction of treatment failure. Using clinical, chest radiographic and pulse oximetry data from 1702 children recruited in the Amoxicillin Penicillin Pneumonia International Study (APPIS) trial we developed and validated a simple clinical tool. For development, a randomly derived development sample (n = 889) was used. The tool which was based on the results of multivariate logistic regression models was validated on a separate sample of 813 children. The derived clinical tool in its final form contained three clinical predictors: age of child, excess age-specific respiratory rate at baseline and at 24 hr of hospitalization. This tool had a 70% and 66% predictive accuracy in the development and validation samples, respectively. The tool is presented as an easy-to-use nomogram. It is possible to predict the likelihood of treatment failure in children with severe pneumonia based on clinical features that are simple and inexpensive to measure.

Brief hospitalization and pulse oximetry for predicting amoxicillin treatment failure in children with severe pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: In settings with limited assessment tools, we sought to determine whether early clinical signs and symptoms and blood oxygen saturation would predict amoxicillin treatment failure in children with severe pneumonia (as defined by the World Health Organization). METHODS: Data were from a previously reported, multinational trial of orally administered amoxicillin versus injectable penicillin for the treatment of World Health Organization-defined severe pneumonia in children 3 to 59 months of age. We assessed all 857 participants assigned randomly to the experimental amoxicillin arm. Six multivariate logistic regression models were created and evaluated for their ability to predict failure after 48 hours of therapy. Regression models included vital signs, symptoms, and laboratory data collected at baseline and after 12 or 24 hours of observation. Oxygen saturation data were included in 3 models. RESULTS: Clinical treatment failure occurred for 18% of children. Younger age, increased initial respiratory rate, and baseline hypoxia predicted treatment failure in all models. Data available after 24 hours improved the ability to predict failure compared with data available at baseline or 12 hours. The inclusion of oximetry data improved the predictive ability at baseline, 12 hours, and 24 hours. The ability to predict failure after 12 hours of observation with oximetry data was similar to the predictive ability after 24 hours without pulse oximetry data. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of clinical parameters at presentation and after 24 hours improved the ability to predict clinical failure of oral amoxicillin therapy, compared with assessment at presentation alone or at presentation and after only 12 hours, for children with World Health Organization-defined severe pneumonia.

Failure of standard antimicrobial therapy in children aged 3-59 months with mild or asymptomatic HIV infection and severe pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether children aged 3-59 months with mild or non-symptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and WHO-defined severe pneumonia have a higher failure rate than do HIV-uninfected children when treated with the standard WHO treatment of parenteral penicillin or oral amoxicillin. METHODS: This study was a planned sub-analysis of a randomized trial of 3-59-month-old children presenting with WHO-defined severe pneumonia (the APPIS study). We included two sites with high HIV prevalence in Durban, South Africa and Ndola, Zambia. Primary outcome measures were clinical treatment failure at day 2 and day 14. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: CT00227331http://www.clinicaltrialsgov/show/NCT00227331). FINDINGS: Of the 523 children enrolled, HIV status was known for 464 participants; 106 (23%) of these were infected with HIV. By day 2, 57 (12.3%) children had failed treatment and 110 (23.7%) failed by day 14. Twenty (18.9%) HIV-infected children failed by day 2 compared with 37 (10.3%) uninfected children (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.07; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-4.00). Thirty-four (32.1%) HIV-infected children failed treatment by day 14 compared with 76 (21.2%) uninfected children (adjusted OR 1.88; 95% CI: 1.11-3.17). Analysis stratified by age showed that the greatest differential in treatment failure at day 2 and day 14 occurred in the children aged 3-5 months. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected children with severe pneumonia fail WHO-standard treatment with parenteral penicillin or amoxicillin at day 2 and day 14 more often than do HIV-uninfected children, especially young infants. Standard case management of acute respiratory infection (ARI) using WHO treatment guidelines is inadequate in areas of high HIV prevalence and reappraisal of empiric antimicrobial therapy is urgently needed for severe pneumonia associated with HIV-1.

Oral amoxicillin versus injectable penicillin for severe pneumonia in children aged 3 to 59 months: a randomised multicentre equivalency study.

BACKGROUND: Injectable penicillin is the recommended treatment for WHO-defined severe pneumonia (lower chest indrawing). If oral amoxicillin proves equally effective, it could reduce referral, admission, and treatment costs. We aimed to determine whether oral amoxicillin and parenteral penicillin were equivalent in the treatment of severe pneumonia in children aged 3-59 months. METHODS: This multicentre, randomised, open-label equivalency study was undertaken at tertiary-care centres in eight developing countries in Africa, Asia, and South America. Children aged 3-59 months with severe pneumonia were admitted for 48 h and, if symptoms improved, were discharged with a 5-day course of oral amoxicillin. 1702 children were randomly allocated to receive either oral amoxicillin (n=857) or parenteral penicillin (n=845) for 48 h. Follow-up assessments were done at 5 and 14 days after enrollment. Primary outcome was treatment failure (persistence of lower chest indrawing or new danger signs) at 48 h. Analyses were by intention-to-treat and per protocol. FINDINGS: Treatment failure was 19% in each group (161 patients, pencillin; 167 amoxillin; risk difference -0.4%; 95% CI -4.2 to 3.3) at 48 h. Infancy (age 3-11 months; odds ratio 2.72, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.79), very fast breathing (1.94, 1.42 to 2.65), and hypoxia (1.95, 1.34 to 2.82) at baseline predicted treatment failure by multivariate analysis. INTERPRETATION: Injectable penicillin and oral amoxicillin are equivalent for severe pneumonia treatment in controlled settings. Potential benefits of oral treatment include decreases in (1) risk of needle-borne infections; (2) need for referral or admission; (3) administration costs; and (4) costs to the family.